Getting to the right stocks means sometimes stepping out of the mainstream markets. Some of the best growth companies happen to be in oddball locales with a little political heat. To get to the right markets at the right time, I have a few key guys inside the US intelligence community who provide my research team and
Personal Finance readers the inside scoop on how to profit:
With most media and political attention directed toward Iraq, don’t forget about the rest of the world, the likely location of some of your biggest winners and, if you’re not careful, biggest losers.
In this article, we’ll travel the world to see what’s not just below the media radar but below public view so you know what your money is up against.
We start with Israel.
Israel is an incredible story: Despite years of conflict, it has managed to build a robust economy that’s set to grow at a rate exceeding 6 percent this year.
Israel’s economy, driven by strong personal consumption growth, fiscal discipline and an 11 percent boost in exports despite the country’s strong currency, is one of the few oases of calm in a world of turmoil.
Although there isn’t much in the way of good news for regional peace, some of the most significant external threats to Israel--and its economy--have turned inward, providing the small country an opportunity to make big advances.
This includes Hamas and Fatah attacking each other rather than Israelis, Lebanese terrorist groups targeting their own country instead of their neighbor, and both Syria and Iran worried about US operations aimed squarely at them.
Continue to own our favorites in this market including our defense contractor and closed-end fund inside the Growth Portfolio.
Then, how about Europe, old and new?
Normally, Europe doesn’t elicit much coverage beyond reports of its adequate growth rate and the latest European Central Bank interest-rate decision, even within the intelligence community.
Lately, though, there’s plenty to make both spies and investors pause and reassess.
In the west, France’s new president, Nicolas Sarkozy, is deftly laying the groundwork for significant reforms to jumpstart the country’s--and the continent’s--economy.
While other leaders only promise liberalizing regulations, Sarkozy and his majority in parliament are well positioned to restructure labor laws, provide tax relief and renew the politically and economically beneficial alliance between France and the US.
Even in the short time since Sarkozy’s election, French consumers are more confident about their economy and where it’s headed, which is good for all of Europe.
With its recent EU-wide acquisitions, France-based Growth Portfolio holding that’s the global leader in water and other key infrastructure markets can expect to ride a profitable wave of French enthusiasm and business-oriented reforms.
But the view isn’t rosy in some of the EU’s frontier areas. Ukraine is on a path that could lead the country to split in half, possibly through a civil war.
The chances aren’t high, but with recent wrangling regarding which office (the president or prime minister) controls the military, an only recently resolved stalemate about when and how elections will take place and a deep and antagonistic divide between the country’s regions, there’s no end in sight for Ukraine’s rough post-Communist trauma.
Although the situation could have a significant impact on Europe’s relationship with Russia and Russia’s oil companies, it’s unlikely. Furthermore, most companies’ and funds’ exposure to Ukraine is minimal or well protected, making your risk to the turbulence minimal. Although no action is necessary at this time, we’re keeping an eye on this area.
Close by, Estonia recently claimed it was under Internet attack, possibly by Russia. Now that the cyber-hysteria has abated, there are strong indications the attacks weren’t well organized or a grave threat.
That won’t stop Estonia and its NATO brethren from accelerating spending in the already healthy market of defense-oriented tech. A bit ahead of the curve, the US intelligence and defense communities have already increased spending to focus on better integrating and utilizing tech for everything from sharing information to pushing the offensive against enemies and ne’er-do-wells.
That Isreali defense contractor mentioned above will do well in this environment, so you may be already well positioned.
For additional exposure, though, buy
ICF International (NSDQ: ICFI) as an interesting additional play. The company has a variety of contracts with the US government, including the Energy, Homeland Security and Defense departments and the Environmental Protection Agency. And its fundamentals beat or meet peers in most every aspect, making it one of the sector’s better bets.
On siesta?
A couple years ago, there were waves of news and fears regarding the electoral success of Latin America’s new generation of leftists. Nowadays, you don’t hear much.
Part of the quiet is a result of the situation in Iraq. But part of it’s also because of the generally pro-business attitudes of these leaders and the capitalist-friendly environments they’ve fostered, despite their rhetoric.
That isn’t to say everywhere is safe. But for every Venezuela, there are two or three Brazils.
The very fact there are no major security or intelligence concerns in the area says a lot about the region. But it’s mere indirect proof of a good opportunity for investors.
Take a look at the direct proof: overall solid performance from the region and specific markets, upgrades of Latin American bonds (an event that usually precedes continued/future positive stock performance) and soaring demand for the region’s commodities.
To profit from Latin America’s strong growth, take a look at the core of our bond funds inside the Cash Cows of the Growth Portfolio. We’ve had top returns for the past couple years and with a bit of selling near term--some of the Latin bonds are indeed great buys again.
Come and Chat
If you’d like to hear firsthand about some of our investments, particularly those in some of the more-interesting markets beyond the usual Wall Street fluff, join me on one or more of my upcoming conferences or travel opportunities--see below for the various opportunities available.
Head out to the East Coast, and join me and
PF Associate Editors Roger Conrad and Elliott Gue at the Washington, DC, Money Show, September 6-8, 2007. The conference will take place at the Wardman Park Marriott, located in downtown Washington DC. Click
here to register for free. Be sure to tell them I sent you.
Noble palaces, historic villages, stunning natural vistas and indispensable, one-on-one conversation: I’ll be cruising down the blue Danube Sept. 8-16, 2007, along with
PF Associate Editors Roger Conrad and Elliott Gue. You’ll have unfettered access to talk about your portfolio or any other topic that comes up as you take in Central Europe’s rich culture and historic beauty aboard the River Cloud, a “five-star floating hotel.” Interested in exploring Europe and your portfolio? Contact Joseph H. Conlin Travel Management toll free at 877-814-6502 or via e-mail at
nycimpresario@mac.com to finalize your plans.
Farewell
Finally, the man who worked to help figure out how to make the wackiest of us well died at 93 years.
Investing in markets in crisis or transition often comes down to key leaders and their mental abilities. The domain of the mind was psychologist Al Ellis’ specialty, and he helped bring the industry of analysis into the 20th century and beyond.
If you’re interested in having me or one of my cohorts address any investment or professional groups, please e-mail me at
bygeorge@kci-com.com with ideas or suggestions.
Neil J. George, Jr.
Errors/Omissions: I always welcome being called on facts, figures and commentary from readers and look forward to your feedback. I can be reached by e-mail at
bygeorge@kci-com.com.